“The wait is over - the journey starts now”

October was an eventful month for the funds, with significant movements in both gold and silver. We are excited to see that silver has now reached an all-time high of over 50 USD. We also observed continued net inflows, with total assets under management (AUM) surpassing SEK 5 billion for the first time. Meanwhile, AuAg Silver Bullet celebrated its sixth anniversary on November 4, and the fund is on track for its first year of triple-digit returns, something we have discussed since the very beginning. Keep reading the monthly letter below.

Au and Ag during the previous month

The gold price closed the month at USD 4,001 (USD 3,859), rising by 3.68%. Just last month, we described how the price had quickly established itself above USD 3,800, preparing for the next significant level at USD 4,000. That level was once considered high, but the price surged during the first three weeks of October and reached a new all-time high of USD 4,380 per troy ounce. After that, we saw the first real correction in two months, yet gold still ended the month firmly in positive territory.

The positive aspect of corrections is that momentum-driven funds, leveraged investors, and “weak hands” (retail investors who bought late in the trend) sell their positions, creating a healthier market. Every sale has a buyer on the other side, and it is during these corrections that the “strong hands” step in. The market structure has strengthened considerably in recent weeks, creating the potential for more sustained and stable gains as gold continues its journey toward new all-time highs.

The silver price closed October at USD 48.65 (previously 46.67), marking another strong month with an increase of more than 4%. Silver rose sharply at the start of the month and, for the first time, broke through USD 50 per troy ounce on October 9. With continued strength, a new all-time high of USD 54.47 was reached on October 17. The waiting is over, and the real journey toward triple digits can begin.

Following the October peak, silver underwent a correction similar to that of gold. However, we saw another record high monthly close for silver, and strong fundamentals suggest that a new upward phase may be underway.

Examining the Gold-Silver Ratio (GSR), it remains high, suggesting that silver is expected to outperform gold in the years to come. In the chart below, we show the current GSR. We also show an example of what the silver price would need to be for the GSR to match the ratio found in the Earth’s crust. To compare silver to another metal, we also examine the Silver-Copper Ratio (SCR). Copper is currently priced at 0.3475 USD per troy ounce.

GSR 82.3 (Silver-Gold Earth Crust Ratio: 15 – at gold 4,001, silver would need to be 266.73).

SCR 139.8 (Copper-Silver Earth Crust Ratio: 886 – at copper 0.3475, silver would need to be 307.88).

Several mining companies have now started publishing their Q3 2025 reports. The first came just as the gold price saw its first correction in several months. Newmont’s report was cautious about the future. On the same day, information leaked about a possible acquisition of Barrick’s Nevada mines, which negatively affected the share price. We have not yet seen significant stock surges following these reports, but results so far have been very strong overall.

What takes time is that the market has not yet dared to price in the new levels for gold and silver. It is essential to recognise that average prices over time are what ultimately determine a company's results. Temporary spikes and drops in commodity prices often have little effect on how the equity market values these companies. For those of us who believe in even higher commodity prices, this underestimation of gold and silver by other asset managers is an advantage. We are fully invested before reality catches up with the sceptics, and it may turn out that today’s prices are still low.

AuAg Funds – highlights

The AuAg funds experienced strong net inflows once again during the past month. A positive final trading day reversed the sequence of outflows we had earlier in the week. We reached the milestone of more than SEK 5 billion in assets under management, and the number of investors has now grown to over 60,000. This is an incredible achievement in such a short time. Thank you to everyone who talks about AuAg and our funds with friends and colleagues, you are our best ambassadors.

Although AuAg Silver Bullet has been in the spotlight for most of this year, October’s fund of the month is AuAg Precious Core. The fund delivered a strong monthly return of +9.49% in SEK (+10.47% in EUR) and a year-to-date performance of +32.53% in SEK (+39.40% in EUR).

AuAg Precious Core is a multi-asset fund that has achieved an annualised return (CAGR) of just over 12% since its inception five years ago. The fund has outperformed other multi-asset funds in the market and has also exceeded the performance of both the OMXS30, including dividends, and the broader Stockholm Stock Exchange (SIXRX). This comes with a correlation of only 0.37 with the broader market.

A low correlation means the fund moves differently compared to the market, it has had periods of strong performance when the market has fallen, and vice versa. It is therefore an optimal tool for a diversified portfolio.

In terms of risk, or what is referred to as volatility—the extent to which the fund fluctuates—it is on par with, or even slightly lower than, the broader equity market. This makes AuAg Precious Core the most conservative fund among the AuAg funds.

We are now planning to refine the 60 per cent equity allocation in AuAg Precious Core by increasing our focus on the energy sources we believe will shape the future: solar and nuclear power. In line with the global electrification trend, the fund will primarily invest in mining companies specialising in key metals such as copper, uranium, lithium, and silver.

For the 40 per cent exposure to precious metals, primarily gold, we will not make any adjustments. We view gold as a superior alternative to bonds for portfolio protection, an asset that not only serves as a hedge but also offers attractive return potential, even when the stock market performs well.

Stay tuned for more information as we communicate updates about this exciting development.

Global perspectives with AuAg

The United States and China appear to have reached a pause in their tariff and export restriction disputes. We have heard similar statements before, and each side has its own interpretation of what has been agreed upon.

While the US–China relationship has calmed somewhat, attention has now shifted to the US-Venezuela and US–Nigeria relationships. Without judging right or wrong, it is clear that the United States continues to use its position as the world’s most powerful nation in finance, business, military, and - not least - through the “weaponised dollar.” The US is likely to come out ahead in every situation, but in the long run, this could erode global trust. More and more countries are now preparing to strengthen themselves and reduce their dependence on the US and the dollar, a trend that has been growing for several years and is now accelerating.

Everyone knows the US is the strongest. But not exploiting that fact would be to show true strength, something that would earn growing trust from the rest of the world and ultimately give the US even more power. For now, the cards are being played differently, and we must adapt and evolve in the best possible way to come out as winners.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates but signalled a slightly more hawkish stance than the market expected by downplaying the likelihood of another cut in December. The Fed also announced it will end its quantitative tightening (QT), meaning it will stop reducing its balance sheet.

Interestingly, the US stock market (S&P 500) has continued to rise despite the Fed's reduction in its balance sheet. One explanation may be that large budget deficits and record-high government debt have offset this tightening.

Will everything continue to rise now that the Fed is moving from QT to a pause, and perhaps soon back to QE stimulus? Or is something else about to happen? Warren Buffett has sold more stocks than ever before and is sitting on record amounts of cash. Is that to buy cheap after a big downturn, or in anticipation of new QE measures?

To date, relatively little investor capital has flowed into gold, silver and mining companies compared to other asset classes. This leaves significant potential once the big rotation truly begins.

*We appreciate all the questions and comments during our AuAg Live sessions. *The next one will take place on December 17, where we’ll summarise what has happened during this fantastic 2025. Of course, a lot can still happen in those final two weeks of the year.