“A truly spectacular Au-tumn”

The market for metals and mining companies has remained strong throughout the month. The funds have reached several new all-time highs (ATH), we have seen large net inflows, and welcomed several thousand new investors. In addition, our assets under management surpassed the milestone of 4 billion SEK. In this month’s letter, we comment on the rise in gold and silver prices and the performance of mining companies. We also look ahead to the final quarter of the year. Keep reading the monthly letter below.

Au and Ag during the previous month

The gold price closed the month at USD 3,859 (3,449), rising almost 12% in September.

The price surged straight through the 3,500–3,600 range and has now established itself above 3,800, setting the stage for the next major level at 4,000. A gold price of 4,000 may sound high, but we consider it still well below where it should be. With global banks such as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs also using both 4,000 and 5,000 in their scenarios, it increasingly looks like this is becoming the “new normal.”

The Fed’s first rate cut in a long time was one driver, but more importantly, it is clear that the current president holds the power and usually gets his way, one way or another. Moreover, we believe the Fed will need to cut rates significantly for reasons beyond presidential pressure. Quantitative easing (QE) will also likely be required to bring down long-term yields that are weighing on the U.S. economy. The day QE returns, the next target of 5,000 will be firmly in sight.

The U.S. dollar has lost -15% against the SEK (-13% against the EUR) in 2025. This means that while the gold price is up +47% in USD, it has risen +25% in SEK (+30% in EUR). It is this latter figure that should be compared with the AuAg Gold Rush fund, which is up +88% in SEK (+95% in EUR). Measured in USD, the fund has gained +109% this year.

The silver price closed September at USD 46.69 (39.75), marking a very strong month with a gain of over 17%. This was the highest monthly and quarterly close ever for silver, providing continued strength from a technical perspective. In general market terms, it is often said that “strength breeds strength.” Part of this phenomenon stems from more and more investors recognizing the momentum and increasing their allocations to the sector, which in turn drives a rotation effect of capital and further price gains.

The Gold-Silver Ratio (GSR) started the year at 90:1, and in our 2025 Outlook, we highlighted that, thanks to an especially strong silver price, we wanted to see it move toward 70:1 by year-end. The ratio has been trending downward as silver has outperformed gold this year, but it still sits just above 82:1. With a gold price of USD 3,859, a GSR of 70:1 would imply a silver price of USD 55. Once silver reaches USD 50 and sets a new all-time high, the upside is wide open, and USD 55 could be reached in very short order. Thus, there is still significant potential in silver this year. Looking further ahead, when this bull market eventually peaks, we expect the ratio to fall below 30:1—implying a triple-digit silver price.

As noted, the U.S. dollar has weakened -15% against the SEK (-13% against the EUR) in 2025. This means that while silver is up +61% in USD, it has risen +37% in SEK (+42% in EUR). It is this latter figure that should be compared with the AuAg Silver Bullet fund, which is up +106% in SEK (+114% in EUR). Measured in USD, the fund has gained +146% this year.

The companies in the sector continue to deliver, with margins expanding further and further. In this letter, we want to emphasize that the journey we are now in the midst of is not new and only began this year. It has not been new since the real bull market started on March 1, 2024.

Few investors realize that technology companies and gold mining companies have been the two best-performing sectors over the past 10 years. Most would likely guess that Tech—everyone’s “darling”—would be one of them. But that “our” sector is also among the top over a decade is largely unknown to most. This under-owned sector may attract new investors, an essential factor driving the next leg higher in mining company share prices.

AuAg Funds – Highlights

The AuAg funds once again had a historic month, with over SEK 700 million in net inflows. Thanks to you, our investors, and of course a continued “fairly” strong performance, total assets under management have now surpassed SEK 4 billion.

We are also very pleased to welcome all the new investors who have discovered AuAg. Both in Sweden and Norway, the investor base has grown significantly. A bit more unusual, but equally gratifying, is that Family Offices from Switzerland have also begun investing in the AuAg-funds!

AuAg Silver Bullet grew from SEK 2 billion to SEK 3 billion in just one month, shining not only through its continued strong performance but also thanks to significant inflows from both existing and new investors. For the first time, the fund also surpassed NAV 300—a solid step on the path toward our long-term milestone of NAV 1,000.

Throughout 2024, we communicated extensively about the potential performance gap we anticipated between the commodity itself and the companies that extract it. The two main factors were the leverage effect for a European investor when the dollar weakens, and the way margin changes, in percentage terms, impact company results. Up until September this year, the difference in SEK is +106% versus +37% for silver, a ratio of 2.86:1 (in EUR +114% versus +42% for silver, or 2.71:1). In USD, the leverage this year stands at 2.39:1.

On several days, the fund even ranked among the Top 10 most purchased funds on Avanza. Being in the Top 3 of all funds in terms of both 1-year and 3-year performance naturally generates significant attention and interest from new investors.

AuAg Silver Bullet has also outperformed its benchmark, the world’s largest silver mining ETF, the U.S.-listed SIL. Measured in USD, the fund is up +146% versus +126% this year and has outperformed by +64% since its launch nearly six years ago—further strengthening its appeal to institutional capital.

As always, it is never wrong to take some profits during larger upswings and then buy back on pullbacks. This can be a good way to use volatility—treating the swings as a friend. The challenge this autumn, however, is that the market has only been moving upward.

In the past, we have boldly stated that AuAg Silver Bullet should be capable of delivering a few years with triple-digit returns. Last year we were on track but lost some ground toward the end. Now we are back on course and currently stand at +106%. We still have a quarter left of 2025, and things can change fast.

Global Perspectives with AuAg

During September, we did not see many “new” macro events affecting our world—rather, it was more of the same patterns we have observed previously. In short, very much of the same.

The major development, of course, was that the Fed has begun a new cycle of rate cuts and that President Trump is doing everything he can to gain control over the Fed by attempting to remove members and replace them with new, loyal ones. In May 2026, a new Chair will be appointed, and if nothing else, Powell is unlikely to remain in that position. However, it is clear that Trump wants to see changes already now if the Fed and Chair Powell do not comply with his wishes—namely, immediate and significant rate cuts.

Stimulus through lower interest rates, future measures such as quantitative easing (QE), large budget deficits with increasing debt, and a continued erosion of confidence in the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency all create an environment where we could indeed see much higher gold and silver prices. Exciting times, to say the least.

As a closing “last call”—don’t miss the chance to meet us at the Nordic Funds and Mines in Stockholm (Hotel At Six) this Wednesday and Thursday. The entire AuAg team will be there. Take part in our competition and win an AuAg cap. You can also meet some of the companies we hold in AuAg Silver Bullet, for example Aya, First Majestic, McEwen, and GoGold.