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Gold & Mining Outlook 2023

Reasons to invest in gold and mining in 2023

A brief summary of the most important trends and themes for gold, silver, and mining companies in 2023.

Gold shining in 2023

Investing in gold and silver in 2023

  • Gold and silver are ending 2022 with a powerful finish and are looking strong for 2023
  • We anticipate a new all-time high for gold during 2023 and the start of a new secular bull market when the price goes over 2100 USD per troy ounce
  • After a series of fines, we finally see an end to the commercials’ negative and manipulative action on the COMEX-exchange
  • Central banks as a group have continued, since the great financial crisis, to add more and more gold to their reserves, with a new record set for q3 2022
  • It is our opinion that central banks will pivot on their rate hikes and become dovish during 2023, which will ignite an explosive move for gold for years to come
  • We, therefore, believe gold will end 2023 at least 20 per cent higher, and we also see miners outperforming gold with a factor of two
Gold miners in a true sweet spot

Investing in mining companies in 2023

  • Gold miners’ one-period historical suffering from the creation of Gold ETCs has run its cause, and the long-lasting selling period is over, resulting in no further selling pressure
  • Gold miners are today historically cheap relative to gold, something that will revert and overshoot in the coming secular gold bull market
  • Gold miners have lowered their debt substantially in the last ten years, as other sectors instead have taken on a lot more debt
  • The gold price has also risen approximately 50% in the last four years
  • Since 2021, companies in the commodity sector have become true cash flow monsters, and the sub-sector with the highest margins has been the producers of precious metals
  • Gold miners have become much more shareowner friendly and are nowadays very careful with new expensive projects
  • Gold miners have a very strong dividend trend, now at 2-5% levels
  • The M&A activity is high, even with companies outbidding competitors
  • We see record share buybacks by gold miners in the last two years, and it is not done with added debt on high valuations as in most sectors
  • Gold miners have a very low correlation with the broad stock market and are becoming more attractive for larger investors looking for possible/alternative return drivers, and that may result in substantial capital flows, which will then take equity prices higher
  • Gold miners are also historically cheap vs S&P500, which offers a great entry point
  • Smaller large caps, as well as larger midcaps, are expected to outperform the mega-caps within the sector
  • Institutional money will significantly drive the share prices of ESG-friendly companies and ETFs with the best sustainability credentials

Disclaimer

Remember that investing in mutual funds always involves a risk. An investment can both increase and decrease in value and it is not certain that you will recover the full amount invested. Further information can be obtained from your financial advisor. AuAg Funds only publishes product- and market-related information and does not make any investment recommendations.

Research Centre

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