Outlook 2026 – ”Riding a bull isn’t for the faint of heart” | Gold & gold miners

During 2025, gold broke through both USD 3,000 and USD 4,000 per troy ounce. Several major banks are already forecasting that gold will surpass USD 5,000 in 2026. It would only take a few more strong years for us to reach the major milestone of USD 10,000.

Gold continues to reflect the enormous expansion of fiat currencies driven by rising global debt and central banks running their printing presses at full speed. As we approach USD 10,000, we will reassess and set a new long-term target based on the global conditions at that time.

We believe we are in our lifetimes defining bull market for gold. But riding a bull is not for the faint of heart, and historically, temporary corrections of –20-30% or more are far from unusual. These are often orchestrated pullbacks that occur when markets become truly frothy. Large short positions are used to force prices lower, speculators are shaken out, and weak hands begin selling. The buyers are often the same players who initiated the decline — the so-called “strong hands” seeking attractive entry points for the next leg of the bull market.

In our Outlook 2025, we stated that “gold will break through USD 3,000 and could reach USD 3,300”. That proved to be far too conservative. Following a 24% rise in 2024, we expected gold to gain another 26% in 2025. Instead, gold surged +64.4%, ending the year at USD 4,315. During 2025, we also saw a new all-time high of USD 4,549 per troy ounce.

Our forecast for 2026 is another strong year for gold, with prices breaking decisively above USD 5,000. Our target for 2026 is USD 6,000 (+39%), although anything above USD 5,500 (+27%) would still constitute a very strong year for gold.

Global debt continues to rise at a record pace. The U.S. economy is being financed through enormous budget deficits that add to an already massive debt burden, while monetary expansion remains aggressive.

President Trump’s economic approach is to “run it hot”, favouring strong stimulus, low interest rates and the use of quantitative easing to support growth. It would be politically unrealistic for the new Federal Reserve Chair to pursue a course contrary to the President’s wishes, particularly given how deliberately the appointment was made to support this vision.

Over the long term, gold responds to the number of fiat currency units being created beyond real economic growth. It is important to emphasize that real growth is not the same as reported GDP figures, as modern GDP calculations include significant unproductive spending categorized as growth. Countries are creating more currency, but generate less real output per unit of debt. This dynamic is precisely why gold continues to rise at an accelerating pace.

We see the following as the fundamental drivers:

• Continued global debt expansion, now approaching USD 350 trillion
• Ongoing stimulus expansion in China, with Japan also implementing record stimulus measures
• Rising interest costs on sovereign debt, now the largest U.S. federal expense, financed through further deficits and borrowing
• A U.S. policy objective to recreate a “1950s-style” expansionary economy — to “run it hot”
• A continued global race toward 0% interest rates; several countries are already near 2%, with Switzerland at 0%
• A “new” Fed likely needing to cut rates significantly to align with expansionary fiscal policy
• Renewed U.S. quantitative easing to suppress long-term interest rates
• Erosion of confidence in the U.S. dollar and continuation of the currency debasement trade
• 2026 shaping up to feature both aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus simultaneously
• As bond markets become increasingly difficult to navigate, capital rotation toward gold accelerates. Gold offers high return potential, low correlation to equities, and no counterparty risk

Gold mining stocks performed very strongly in 2025, as we anticipated. Yet despite these gains, valuations (relative to today’s commodity prices) remain lower than before last year’s major rally. 

If gold prices remain at current levels or continue rising, today’s share prices still do not fully reflect those higher price assumptions. This creates the potential for explosive upside in mining equities, potentially far exceeding the percentage change in gold itself. 

As institutional investors search for complementary investment alternatives, gold miners stand out with historically low valuations. Their low correlation (0.2-0.3) to the broader equity market makes them suitable components in any diversified portfolio. A sustained capital rotation from institutional investors into the sector could drive powerful gains for an extended period. Early investors benefiting from strong returns may further accelerate this inflow. 

Fundamental strengths of the sector: 

• Gold prices significantly above production costs 

• Expanding operating margins 

• Reduced debt levels 

• Greater capital discipline; caution toward expensive new projects in recent years 

• Meaningful share buybacks — particularly attractive when conducted at low valuations and without leverage 

• A clear trend of rising dividends and improved shareholder alignment 

• Elevated M&A activity 

There are several compelling reasons to remain constructive on gold mining companies. Valuations remain attractive despite the sharp rise in gold prices. At the same time, profitability has improved markedly. Gold prices well above production costs combined with stronger balance sheets create favourable conditions for companies in the sector. Additionally, the sector remains relatively small and underinvested, making it especially sensitive to new capital inflows from both professional and private investors. 

For investors seeking exposure to the upside in gold and gold mining companies (while managing risk in a structured manner) a well-constructed portfolio is essential. It is under these principles that AuAg Gold Rush was created. 

AuAg Gold Rush is a fund designed to provide investors with broad and balanced exposure to the gold sector through a portfolio of approximately 24–27 carefully selected companies. The fund has a more defensive profile in comparison to its peers — and aims to offer better downside protection during periods of precious metal weakness while retaining strong upside potential in a bull market. 

Unlike traditional gold mining funds, AuAg Gold Rush does not consist solely of mining companies. Approximately 40% of the portfolio is allocated to royalty and streaming companies, which act as financiers to mining companies. This structure typically results in more moderate gains during sharp rallies, but provides improved downside protection and contributes to more stable long-term performance. 

Combined with the fund AuAg Silver Bullet’s more focused strategy, this creates a balance between offensive and defensive exposure. 

The fund has deliberately chosen not to allocate heavily to the three largest companies in the sector, instead giving greater weight to large- and mid-cap companies. This positioning enhances the ability to capture upside in a continued positive gold market. 

AuAg Gold Rush therefore represents an attractive option for investors seeking to diversify their portfolios and increase exposure to gold mining companies. 

Important information

This material is marketing communication. The information does not constitute investment advice or a personal recommendation. Investment decisions should be based on the fund’s information brochure and fact sheet, as well as your own considerations.

Investments involve risk. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. The money invested in the fund may both increase and decrease in value, and it is not certain that you will recover the entire amount invested.

Before making an investment decision, you should review the fund's information brochure and fact sheet, available at:

https://www.auagfunds.com/investment-solutions/auag-gold-rush#documents