After a sharp bout of volatility in gold and silver, the question is who's selling, who's buying, and what comes next. AuAg Funds portfolio manager Eric Strand joined Investor Studios’ Market Update to unpack the recent moves, the role of central bank buying, and how a new Fed chair could reshape the inflation and interest-rate outlook.

**Valuable insights**

- Volatility in metals is often about trader positioning, not the long-term case. There’s a difference between short-term trader (who chased the swings in oil and rotated out of metals, for example) and long-term investors. Sharp moves in precious metals can reflect where the fast money is positioned, rather than any real change in the underlying case.
- Central banks hold gold because it carries no counterparty risk. Gold's enduring appeal to central banks comes down to one feature: unlike bonds or currencies, it has no counterparty. When trust in the financial system or in other nations is strained, an asset that can't be frozen or confiscated may become uniquely valuable as a reserve.
- Higher interest rates haven't always meant a lower gold price. The assumption that rising rates are negative for gold isn’t always the case – as it has risen through recent major rate-hiking cycles. It’s important to note that ‘cost-push inflation’ (rising prices from higher production costs, such as energy) and ‘demand-driven inflation’ (rising prices that come from demand outpacing supply in an overheating economy) may call for very different policy responses.



「 Marketing communication. Not investment advice. 」

AuAg Funds portfolio manager Eric Strand on the recent gold and silver volatility, why central banks keep buying gold, and what a new Fed chair could signal.

Gold, silver & central bank demand | AuAg x Investor Studios

Eric Strand on volatile gold & silver prices

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Market Update är ett redaktionellt börsprogram producerat av Investor Studios. Programmet sänds live varje tisdag och fredag klockan 11.00, frekvent gästat av förvaltare, experter och noterade bolag.

Investor Studios: Eric Strand om volatila guld- & silverpriser

The gold price closed the month at USD 4,540 (USD 4,621), down −1.7%. Gold has been relatively stable in the 4,400–4,800 range for just over two months and is really loading up to push back to the previous highs around 5,400–5,500. It is after we reach that level that we expect another rapid move toward USD 6,000+ per troy ounce.

In both gold and silver, the eight major “commercial traders” on COMEX are now very close to the lowest level of short positions in history. This is about as bullish as it gets, and as we have said, there is plenty of room on the upside once we get moving again.

The fact that open interest is also at its lowest level in 17 years could be another sign that the big banks’ grip on the market may be approaching the end of the road. If we get a truly free market, it would be a very positive setup for prices going forward.

The chart below shows the major players’ short positions in gold — now near historic lows.

![](https://a.storyblok.com/f/135633/1920x1080/b3721e4f06/gold-cot-top-8-traders.png)Our forecast of USD 6,000+ remains in place and would imply gains of close to +30% over the next 8 months. The latest big bank, Wells Fargo, recently came out with an [updated forecast that even pointed to USD 8,000](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/wells-fargo-says-gold-could-163500630.html) as a possibility.


# Au and Ag in the past month


The silver price ended April at USD 75.40 (USD 73.76), a gain of +2.2%. Silver too has been relatively stable in the 70–90 USD range and looks to be gearing up to push back above 90. Once there, it could move quickly above 100 and toward our short-term target of USD 133 per troy ounce.

The COMEX positioning for silver looks, if anything, even better than for gold.

The equivalent picture for silver is shown in the chart below.

![](https://a.storyblok.com/f/135633/1920x1080/01958172ac/silver-cot-top-8-traders.png)

The new, stable price levels for physical silver are a dream for the mining companies that produce silver as their primary metal. Demand for silver continues to rise alongside growing market needs, but the amount of silver being mined has stagnated. Bringing a new mine into production can take up to 20 years, which means that even a higher price cannot translate into expanded production and supply in the short term. At the same time, demand is rising sharply, and silver is classified as a critical or strategic metal in several countries. The result is a structural imbalance that points toward a dramatic price increase. We are already seeing signs of this, with some countries willing to pay above market price to secure supply.

A shortage of a commodity that is essential in so many products but that, at the same time, plays a very small role in the product’s final price, means that we essentially see no ceiling for the silver price. Of course, copper is used where possible because it is cheaper, and in some cases quality is even reduced to maintain consumer margins. But where the best quality is required, demand for silver only rises. On the contrary, more and more high-tech applications will use silver because of its remarkable and unique properties. This is a perfect storm for the silver miners.

The growing gap between silver supply and demand against a growing price is illustrated in the chart below.

![](https://a.storyblok.com/f/135633/1920x1080/c02106156e/silver-supply-demand-vs-market-balance.png)We can also see that the silver miners have started to outperform the gold miners. The gold miners have done very well — the silver miners are simply doing even better. That is a sign of strength, and at the same time the beginning of a trend that could last for years to come.

The trend stands out clearly in the comparison of silver and gold miners in the chart below.

![](https://a.storyblok.com/f/135633/1920x1080/b997296de6/silver-miners-vs-gold-miners.png)

AuAg Precious Core was the best-performing AuAg fund in April, returning +10.49% (EUR +11.23%). The fund hit several new all-time highs and also ended the month at the top.

AuAg Precious Core is the odd bird in the AuAg lineup, as it is a multi-asset fund. It has 60% exposure to global electrification through equities and 40% exposure to the raw materials themselves — particularly gold — via ETCs. This mix makes it the AuAg fund with the lowest standard deviation, around 19–20%, giving it a risk class of 4 out of 7.

The chart below shows the fund's allocation between electrification and commodity exposure via gold ETCs.

![](https://a.storyblok.com/f/135633/1920x1080/f72fb73d66/precious-core-holdings.png)

Compared with other multi-asset funds, you can also see how well it has delivered since inception.

It is also pleasing to see that the fund is now approaching SEK 500 million in assets under management, and that the [updated portfolio composition](https://www.auagfunds.com/research-centre/portfolio-updates/portfolio-update-auag-precious-core) has already begun to bear fruit.

AuAg Precious Core has a CAGR of over 16% for share class A (15.3% for share class B) and, on a strong tailwind, has returned +72.06% in SEK over the past year (12 months) (+74.40% in EUR).


## The AuAg funds - Highlights


Peace between the U.S. and Iran. Yes — no — yes — no — maybe… Hopefully we will see an end to the madness soon, even if it looks like it will take a little longer. Peace negotiations tend to lead to compromises, but ones where both sides can still go home and declare themselves the winner — the so-called “save face” outcome. That, however, requires statesmen, not strongmen. This is the only thing we see as a real risk to weaker market performance: that the war flares up again and spreads to more countries and regions. A regime change in Iran no longer seems to be on the table, and President Trump is doing everything he can to avoid looking like someone who has failed. On the contrary — he wants to be the savior of the world.

One of the two big new trends that have dominated 2026 is the defense and arms race, which will require huge volumes of metals and push prices upward. The other is AI and the companies leading that race. Once again, metals will play a decisive role in all the data centers and the infrastructure around them. The potential bubble lies among the extremely highly valued and hyped AI companies, while the safer play — the “picks and shovels” of the AI trend — can be found in the companies mining the metals.

The amount of money continues to grow — now even faster. Monetary inflation is a function of both the quantity of money and the [velocity of money](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V), i.e., how many times money changes hands during a given period. As the velocity of money has slowed sharply throughout the 21st century, central banks have been forced to inject ever more money into the financial system.

If money velocity now continues its new upward trend, it will lead to exactly the economy President Trump wants to see — “run it hot.” Both equities and real assets will be the winners — and at the very front, we are likely to see the companies (equities) that produce real assets.

Fiat currencies — often called paper currencies — which today can be created at the press of a digital button, are exactly what Thomas Jefferson described back in 1788: [“Paper is poverty … it is only the ghost of money, and not money itself.”](https://moneymetalsexchange.medium.com/the-dangers-of-money-printing-thomas-jefferson-and-the-financial-panic-of-1819-6830e4e78bdc)

Just how rapidly the money supply is now expanding is illustrated in the chart below.

![](https://a.storyblok.com/f/135633/1920x1080/824c3064fe/us-money-supply-growth.png)

And here you can see how the velocity of money has now turned upward again after a long downtrend.

![](https://a.storyblok.com/f/135633/1920x1080/fc6bf327c2/us-m2-money-velocity.png)

2026 has proven particularly difficult to navigate, which makes it all the more important to zoom out and see where it all leads in the end. What we are seeing is that everything is reinforcing our case in new ways. Not that any reinforcement was needed — but we are loaded for the journey ahead, when, hopefully, the noise from all the talking power-players fades and reality can take over.


## Global Outlook with AuAg


AuAg's investment solutions are essential building blocks in any portfolio. They aim to deliver positive long-term returns with a low correlation to traditional investment strategies. 



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